Markets:
- Gold down $5 to $1908
- WTI crude oil down 6-cents to $88.78
- US 10-year yields down 0.1 bps to 4.25%
- S&P 500 up 0.2%
- NZD leads, JPY lags
What a letdown. The whole market was chatting about CPI for a week before the release but it came and went with hardly a ripple in markets. The core m/m number was a touch strong but the data was generally in line with estimates and the dollar whipped in both directions before settling slightly lower.
From there, the swings in equities and bonds took over but also left barely a dent on the market. The commodity currencies were bid shortly after the equity open as sentiment improved but gave it back late as sentiment deteriorated. That left them basically unchanged on the day.
The euro was an interesting case as it jumped early in Asia on the ECB forecast leak but it couldn’t hold onto those gains and finished the day at pre-leak levels in a sign of angst ahead of tomorrow’s ECB rate decision. Current pricing suggests a 64% chance of a hike.
USD/JPY rose as high as 147.72 in the immediate aftermath of CPI but quickly gave it back without challenging last week’s highs that are just above. Still, it was the second day of gains for the pair and the gap lower on Monday has now been erased.
