The Dollar is struggling to pursue its advance. Economists at Société Générale analyze FX market outlook.
Stronger growth in China enough to guide EUR/USD above 1.0635?
Whether the USD will hold its ground may depend on whether pricing for December FOMC surpasses 50%.
We are closely watching technicals in the DXY as bullish momentum is showing signs of exhaustion and potentially breaking down.
Stronger growth in China is implicitly positive for EUR/USD (trade balance) but is it enough to guide the pair above 1.0635? We have our doubts and ideally would need to see a significant retracement in UST/Bunds, better Eurozone data (weaker US) and narrowing of the XCCY basis. The 10y spread is closing in on 200 bps, not a signal to add Euro longs.
For the 10y UST yield, a shot at 5% depends on whether 4.88% can be overcome.
