US:
- The Fed hiked by 25 bps as
expected and kept everything unchanged at the last meeting. - Fed Chair Powell reaffirmed their data dependency
and kept all the options on the table. - Inflation measures
since then showed further disinflation. - The labour market
displayed signs of softening although it remains fairly solid. - Overall, the economic data started to surprise to
the downside lately. - This week the ISM Services PMI and Jobless Claims
surprised to the upside. - The Fed members are leaning more towards a pause in
September rather than another rate hike. - The market doesn’t expect the Fed to hike at the
September meeting, but there’s now a 50/50 chance of a hike in November.
Australia:
- The
RBA kept its cash rate unchanged as widely expected as they are
seeing signs that the economy is indeed slowing and that will help to return
inflation back to target. - The
data is supporting the RBA’s stance as the Australian jobs, wages and inflation data all missed expectations
lately. - The
Australian PMIs also missed expectations remaining
in contraction. - RBA
Governor Lowe in his speech reaffirmed that if inflation remains sticky, they
will have to tighten more. - The
market expects the RBA to hold rates steady at the next meeting as well.
AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe
AUDUSD Daily
On the daily chart, we can see that AUDUSD is
struggling to break below the recent lows although the bearish bias remains as
the moving averages are
crossed to the downside and the fundamentals are more in favour of the USD. A
break below the lows should lead to another selloff and the sellers will keep
on targeting the 0.6168 level.
AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe
AUDUSD 4 hour
On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we are now
basically trading within a range between the 0.6370 support and the
0.6500 resistance. The buyers are likely to pile in here with a defined risk
below the support and target the 0.6500 resistance. The sellers, on the other
hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to pile in even more and extend
the drop to new lows.
AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe
AUDUSD 1 hour
On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we
have another mini range in the orange box right at the support zone. A break to
the upside should give the buyers a confirmation that we might be heading
towards the 0.65 resistance, while a break to the downside will give the
sellers the signal to pile in for another selloff.
